SportsLine simulated the new NFL season 10,000 times and identified Fantasy football busts 2025 to fade during your Fantasy football draft prep.
None of the first five running backs selected in last year’s NFL Draft reached 300 rushing yards as those Fantasy managers with high expectations were left with Fantasy football busts on their hands.
This year’s early-drafted ball carriers include Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson, among others. But should the disappointment of rookie RBs in 2024 carry over into your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy?
Other more under-the-radar rookie running backs to consider include Dylan Sampson, Ollie Gordon and Bhayshul Tuten.
Hitting on some rookies can be a great way to find value on your Fantasy roster, but it’s almost inevitable that some will turn into 2025 Fantasy football busts, based on recent history. Before finalizing your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine, and get your first month at SportsLine for $1 when using promo code CHAMPIONSHIP.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert would fall well short of his ADP (RB23).
The result: A season after rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 21 total touchdowns despite sharing time with De’Von Achane, Mostert fell out of favor in Miami and finished as RB60 after managing only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021 and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024.
Additionally, it’s called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2025, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Fantasy football busts
One of the 2025 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Ravens running back Derrick Henry. Henry has been a workhorse for much of his career. In nine seasons, Henry has surpassed 1,000 yards rushing six times. In 2024, he carried 325 times for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season with the Baltimore Ravens. But can he continue being a beast?
Henry is seventh in the 2025 running back rankings but not many have surpassed 1,000 yards rushing after their 31st birthday. Only three players have done so since 2015, with Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins the last to do so. In 2023, Mostert rushed for 1,012 yards. Henry has played in 136 career games, rushing for 11,423 yards and 106 touchdowns. He also has 174 receptions for 1,651 yards and five touchdowns.
Another bust that SportsLine’s Fantasy football rankings 2025 have identified: Cardinals running back James Conner. The veteran has defied Father Time as his two best NFL seasons have come in his last two seasons.
Conner reached 1,000 yards in each and had a career high of 1,508 scrimmage yards in 2024. However, he’s now 30 years old, and while his 4.6 yards per carry last year was good, it wasn’t better than what either of his backups in Trey Benson or Emari Demercado averaged.
Benson appears to be the biggest threat to Conner this year, with Conner, himself, even saying the team can’t “shy away from” Benson being a co-RB1 in 2025.
Benson was the second running back taken in the 2024 NFL Draft and has much more Fantasy value as a late-round pick than Conner has as an early-round selection.
Expectations should be tempered for Conner, who the SportsLine model has as the RB15 in Fantasy football rankings after he finished among the top 10 in positional Fantasy points a year ago. See which other Fantasy football busts 2025 to pick here.
How to find proven 2025 Fantasy football rankings
SportsLine is also fading one of the first five running backs off the board in early 2025 Fantasy football drafts. The model ranks this player falling outside the top 10 entirely and failing to live up to his first-round price tag. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2025 Fantasy Football busts should you be steering clear of? And which first-round RB shockingly falls out of the top 10 of the positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Raheem Mostert season in 2024.
2025 Fantasy football ADP
(PPR, via CBS)
- Ja’Marr Chase (1.67)
- Bijan Robinson (2.54)
- Saquon Barkley (3.16)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (3.91)
- CeeDee Lamb (7.23)
- Justin Jefferson (7.50)
- Derrick Henry (7.93)
- Christian McCaffrey (8.90)
- Ashton Jeanty (11.66)
- Josh Jacobs (11.95)